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全球海平面恐升160厘米  

2011-07-25 17:05:08|  分类: 时事 热点 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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全球海平面恐升160厘米                                                   消息来源:AMAP

具权威性的北极监察及评估计划(AMAP)最新研究显示,北极的冰盖正以比预期更快的速度融化,可能令全球海平面平均上升达一百六十厘米,将对沿海城市及岛国带来灾难性影响。

全球海平面恐升160厘米 - 老虎大叔 - 活在过去

Stockholm – ice of Greenland and the rest of the Arctic is melting faster than expected, and can help to raise world sea levels by 5 feet this century, a proportion significantly higher than earlier expectations, and evaluation of an international official says.

Results “confirm the need for greater urgency” in the fight against global warming, says the report from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), the scientific arm of the nation eight Arctic Council.

Warning from the sea is much higher and comes of the world remain bogged down in talks, which lasted more than two decades to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases blamed for global warming.

It is expected to contribute to sea level rise, causing some damage to the worst of global warming – from small islands to flooding as possible from flooded subways in New York City. And oceans all over the world did not rise uniformly, because of currents, wind and other factors, but these low-lying areas like Bangladesh and Florida are likely to be most affected.

The new report, the executive summary obtained by The Associated Press, to be delivered to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and the foreign ministers of the seven other members of the Council meeting of the Arctic next week in Greenland. It will be the first discussion by some 400 international scientists conference this week in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Depending on the improved research techniques and scientific papers recently, and the AMAP report updates projections made by the Expert Group of the United Nations on climate change in the evaluation of the last major in 2007.

It is expected that the melting glaciers in the Arctic ice cap, including the sheet ice in Greenland and wide, to help raise sea levels in the world from 35 to 63 inches (90 to 160 cm) by the year 2100, AMAP said, although He noted that the estimate is highly uncertain.

This is higher than the Outlook 2007 from 7 to 23 inches (19 to 59 centimeters) by the United Nations team. A team of the United Nations ruled out the possibility of accelerated melting in Greenland and Antarctica, saying that the research that had not progressed enough in the mid-2000s. The estimates were based on the United Nations to a large extent on the expansion of ocean water of high temperatures and runoff from melting glaciers ground in other parts of the world.

Now AMAP assessment finds that Greenland was losing ice in the period 2004-2009 four times faster than it was in 1995-2000.

In addition, sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is shrinking faster than had been anticipated by the United Nations, which threatens the long-term survival of polar bears and other species that depend on the ice. The AMAP summer ice cover was at or near record levels in every year since 2001, and predicted the ocean would be almost ice-free in the summer of 30 to 40 years.

The temperatures in the Arctic during the past six years, the highest level since measurements began in 1880, believes that “the reactions” mechanisms to accelerate the warming in the far north.

One mechanism of such involves the ocean to absorb more heat when it is not covered by snow, because snow reflects the sun’s energy. The scientists expected that the effect of “but it was only clear evidence was observed in the Arctic in the past five years,” said AMAP.

Expected to average fall and winter temperatures in the Arctic will rise by about 5 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2080, even if greenhouse gas emissions are less than in the past decade.

“The observed changes in sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, in a block of ice cover of Greenland, and ice cover in the Arctic and glaciers over the past 10 years, exciting and represent a clear departure for patterns in the long term,” said AMAP.

And approved by leading U.S. ice specialist Richard Alley of Pennsylvania State University, who was not involved in the evaluation of AMAP, that modern scientific estimates generally support the central conclusion.

Sea-level rise of more than 3 feet this century, “fits well in these estimates, and can not exclude a higher value to some extent be,” said Alley.

Scientists have steadily improved methods of measuring the loss of ice in the oceans.

In a study published in March Letters Journal of Geophysical Research and the United States and European scientists use two methods independently to confirm their findings: measurement on the ground of the thickness of the ice and movements using the stations, GPS and other tools, and measurement of ice mass through the readings of gravity of the satellite.

Computed under the leadership of Eric Rignot of NASA’s Laboratory for Jet Propulsion, that the acceleration of melting in Greenland and the wide layers of Antarctic ice will contribute to sea-level rise for the year, about 13 inches by 2050. Did not project sea levels to 2100 because of doubts the long-term, but their work, such as AMAP, and significantly updates the previous forecast.

The AMAP report said melting glaciers and ice sheets all over the world has become the largest contributor to sea level rise. He told the paper AMAP Greenland ice alone for more than 40 percent from 0.12 inch (3.1 mm) of sea level rise observed annually between 2003 and 2008.

The main function of the group AMAP is to provide advice to the countries surrounding the Arctic – the United States, Canada, Russia, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Iceland and Finland – on the dangers that threaten the environment.

And expectations should be updated more scientific ammunition supplies in the uphill struggle for a coordinated global action to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. Failed emissions capping legislation in the U.S. Congress last year was a major setback one.

“I’m not sure what is more disturbing, and very slow in Congress to reduce carbon pollution, or an astonishing rate of melting of Arctic ice,” said Lu Leonard, head of climate in the World Wide Fund for Wildlife, a new report. 

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