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日本地震对全球股市意味着什么?  

2011-03-17 00:24:20|  分类: 时事 热点 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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日本地震对全球股市意味着什么?                                 消息来源:华尔街日报

接下来数天、数星期,投资者们或许不得不直面市场一定程度的震荡。

日本央行(Bank of Japan)已承诺向金融市场注入流动性以防止崩盘。但在强震发生三天之后的周一上午,东京股市开盘不久便暴跌4%以上。

不管是保险公司、银行和其他机构等日本大投资者,还是私人家庭,都将需要迅速出售部分资产来筹措现金。

与此同时,多数潜在买家也有可能按兵不动。机构投资者对不确定性的担心胜过一切。在这个时候,很少有基金经理敢于冒着“职业风险”大胆押注日本。而且有多少私人投资者愿意在今天直面投资东京的令人感伤的挑战呢?

与此同时,市场还将消化经济方面的消息。这些消息可能是惨淡的。

数千、或许是数万人可能已经死去。还有很多人将无家可归。为应对核电短缺,日本已经被迫实施轮流停电。基础设施已被毁坏。另外正如我在道琼斯的同事 Yoshio Takahashi和Hiroyuki Kachi所写,地震打击了日本大量关键产业。为应对灾害,本田(Honda)、丰田(Toyota)、日产(Nissan)、索尼(Sony)、松下(Panasonic)和东芝(Toshiba)全都临时关闭了工厂。

法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)全球经济部负责人马克森(Michala Marcussen)接受路透社(Reuters)采访时说,谈到自然灾害的时候,我们看到的往往是起初生产大幅减少,然后往往是一个V型反弹;但一开始大家都会低估损失。

这一切到底会造成股价下跌多少呢?经济将会反弹,可能比很多人预计得快。而接下来数月甚至整年的经济事件对于股市的实际价格的重要性都没有投资者一般认为的那么大。

基金公司GMO首席投资长印克(Ben Inker)的研究发现,股票价格主要取决于公司在未来很多年、甚至数十年之后的收益。下一季度、甚至明年的收益,其实远远没有我们所想的那样重要。

一些人会指出,1995年神户地震后的数月,日本股市下跌了四分之一左右,而这次地震比那一次严重得多。

但两次地震有一个很大的差别。

当神户地震在1995年发生的时候,日本股市仍然在从史上最大股市泡沫上回调。股票非常昂贵,意味着它们很容易受到不利因素的打击,而且下跌之路很长。神户地震前夕,东京市场相对预期收益的市盈率高达53倍,绝对荒谬。

今年的市盈率:仅13倍。

其他历史性类比没有什么启发。我们记得9/11事件过后华尔街受到重挫。我们有时候却不记得它迅速反弹了。亚洲市场得以相当迅速地摆脱了2004年海啸对经济的冲击。

即便日本股市即将迎来震荡,那么美股呢?

至少华尔街和其他地方可能会受到一定程度的影响。资本市场是全球性的。变卖投资筹集现金的日本机构将会在纽约、伦敦以及东京出售。还有一些相同因素会使潜在买家在一旁观望。有了这么多的不确定因素,投资者更有可能希望避而远之。这是人类本性。

但要衡量这次地震会对世界其他地区的实际经济产生多深远的影响要难得多。

是的,日本是世界第三大经济体,也是美国主要的贸易伙伴。但它的重要性不像有些人想象的那么大。

如今,日本占全球经济的份额比20世纪70年代以后的任何时候都小,据国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)统计,日本现在所占份额为5.8%,十年前是7.5%,20世纪90年代初是9%。

根据美国商务部的统计,我们仅将出口商品和服务的7%给日本。这远远小于我们对加拿大或墨西哥的出口,是我们对欧盟的出口的五分之一。美国对日本出口总量占美国整体经济不到1%。

日本股市在20年前是世界最有价值的市场,如今在全球股市市值中的份额比数十年以来的任何时候都小。神户地震前夕,日本股市在世界股市市值中的份额近30%。现在呢?只有7.5%。

对投资者来说,更大的风险是,如今世界股市已经相当昂贵了。众所周知,这就使得世界股市易受外部冲击或衰退的影响。日本是否会引起一次冲击则另当别论。

日本地震对全球股市意味着什么? - 老虎大叔 - 活在过去Quake Halts Output Across Japan

By HIROYUKI KACHI And YOSHIO TAKAHASHI

TOKYO—Much Japanese manufacturing slowed to a halt following Friday's earthquake and tsunami as auto, steel, electronics and other companies suspended operations.

Major power outages, in part because of damaged nuclear reactors, and disruptions in supply networks contributed to the paralysis. Japanese authorities said coordinated power outages would begin Monday and last at least several weeks in an effort to deal with power-supply shortages. The disruption could be aggravated further if problems at nuclear reactors in Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in northeastern Japan got worse.

The nation's auto makers all but shut down domestic production. Suzuki Motor Corp., Mitsubishi Motors Corp. and Hino Motors Ltd. on Sunday said they would halt most, if not all, Japanese production at least temporarily, joining Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co., which announced similar plans Saturday.

A Toyota spokeswoman said the halt at its 12 plants was aimed at allowing employees and suppliers to check the safety of their families. Toyota said it would determine Monday when to resume operations. The auto maker also shut plants at subsidiaries and at its Hino truck-and-bus unit's three factories.

Honda suspended Monday operations at four of its five domestic plants and said it will reassess the situation Tuesday. Factories in Tochigi, Sayama, Hamamatsu and Suzuka will be closed Monday, but Honda's motorcycle plant in the western Japan city of Kumamoto will remain open.

The auto maker reported the death of a 43-year old male employee at its research-and-development center in Tochigi Prefecture, north of Tokyo, after a cafeteria wall collapsed. Honda said that more than 30 employees at facilities in the prefecture were injured.

Nissan shut all six of its Japanese production facilities as it assessed damage and determined whether suppliers will be able to deliver parts. Mitsubishi Motors said it would halt operations at all three domestic auto-assembly plants Monday and Tuesday.

Mazda Motor Corp. said its four plants in western Japan would operate on the early shift on Monday and then suspend production at night and all day Tuesday, citing part-supply shortages from quake-damaged areas.

Consumer-electronics maker Sony Corp. shut six plants—including those manufacturing batteries, chips and smart cards—in Fukushima and Miyazaki. The first floor of a plant in Miyagi Prefecture that makes magnetic tape and Blu-ray discs was flooded, the company said.

Panasonic Corp. halted operations at several northern Japan plants, including those manufacturing digital cameras, audio products and electronic components. The quake has disabled some supply and distribution networks, a spokesman said.

A large Toshiba Corp. chip plant in Iwate Prefecture also suspended operations, and the company was trying to get more information, a spokesman said. Chip maker Asahi Kasei Corp. halted production in a Miyagi plant, from which it had evacuated workers. The company said there were reports of injuries and it wasn't certain about damage.

Fujitsu Ltd.'s plant in Fukushima prefecture, which makes desktop personal computers and servers, was "severely damaged" by the quake, a spokesman said. The company said it would temporarily shift production to other plants. Its semiconductor plants in the quake-stricken north were damaged but the extent of the damage hadn't been determined, the spokesman said.

Production was suspended at Nippon Steel Corp.'s partially flooded factory in the northern city of Kamaishi. The company's nearby port facility had been damaged and it was unclear when it would be repaired. Nippon Steel said it was studying how to switch production to other locations. Three furnaces at its Kimitsu plant near Tokyo resumed operation Sunday.

JFE Holdings Inc. said a plant at its JFE Steel Corp. unit in Chiba, located adjacent to a refinery that caught fire, was safe.

Smelter Mitsubishi Materials Corp. suspended operations at four plants, citing damage and power and water outages.

Nippon Paper Group Inc. said it stopped operations at six plants in the quake-devastated areas of the Tohoku region of northern Japan. The company's Ishinomaki facility was strewn with sediment from the tsunami and almost all its inventory was damaged.

Oriental Land Co. on Saturday closed its Tokyo Disneyland and Disney Sea theme park on the outskirts of the capital for about 10 days while assessing damage. There were about 70,000 visitors at the two parks when the quake hit, and no injuries were reported, the company said.

Kirin Holdings Co. halted operations at its brewery in Miyagi. Kirin said four large beer storage tanks had been damaged.

The impact of the quake and tsunami also was felt in Japan's retail industry, with a large number of Tokyo stores large and small not opening for business Saturday. Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. said its Mitsukoshi department store in the quake-torn city of Sendai was partially destroyed and it was unclear when the store would be able to resume business.

But central Tokyo stores reopened for business Sunday, with brisk business at drugstores and hardware retailers as customers stocked up on goods like flashlights and batteries ahead of anticipated power cuts.                

MARCH 13, 2011, 9:57 P.M. ET  
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